With the selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz for the Democratic nominee for vice president, both parties have finalized their tickets, and the 2024 presidential race can truly begin.
And with both national and swing state polling suggesting an incredibly close race, it is worth asking how the vice presidential candidates will impact the ticket, if at all.
Simply put, while both Vance and Walz have their own unique strengths and risks, it is unlikely that as VP candidates, they will make a difference in this election.
Indeed, neither candidate will do much to expand their respective running mate’s political base. And while they appeal to their individual party’s core constituencies, their positions relatively far from the political center limit their respective abilities to bring in undecided voters.
In Vance’s case, this should come as little surprise. As I wrote in these pages following the GOP convention, Vance represents an ideological twin to Donald Trump. Sure, he appeals to MAGA conservatives, but he does nothing to balance out the ticket.
For Walz, his strengths lie in appealing to progressives – albeit with a folksy, small town feel that Democrats hope will endear him to moderates.
That being said, the Minnesota Governor was clearly the “do no harm” choice that followed days of increasingly vocal angst by progressives that Harris would pick PA Gov. Josh Shapiro.
To be sure, both candidate’s biggest strengths lay in their connection to the all-important rust-belt states, specifically their potential appeal to blue-collar workers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
However, it is likely that neither Vance nor Walz are sufficiently moderate to bring in swing voters who may be unenthusiastic about the two presidential candidates at the top of the tickets.
Vance has already demonstrated this, with extreme rhetoric on the importance of having children – and the women who choose not to – that figures to push away suburban women and even soft-leaning Republicans.
This is not to say that the selection of Vance was entirely a misstep. His relationship with Silicon Valley led to an increase in fundraising among a group that traditionally leans Democratic.
Further, the full impact of Vance’s about-face on Trump and whether he can effectively convince undecided voters to give the former president a second look remains to be seen.
However, at this point, much of the conversation surrounding Vance is whether he was a smart pick, or the result of an overconfident Trump believing he would facing a hobbled Joe Biden.
Trump has already had to spend time defending Vance amid a number of early mistakes, including making the case that the VP has “virtually no impact.”
On the other side, after an unprecedented nominating process, Harris clearly sought a “do no harm” running mate who would do nothing to divide the base or risk enflaming progressives.
As such, she passed over the more well-known Josh Shapiro, the very popular governor of a must-win swing state and whose moderate views on key issues like fracking as well as strong relationships with unions would have benefited the Democratic ticket.
The Harris campaign said she clicked with Walz more than Shapiro, although even Democrats like Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Van Jones noted the presence of antisemitism in discussing Shapiro’s possible selection.
Jones went as far to call out the “anti-Israel bigots” in the Democratic Party who subjected Shapiro to blatantly antisemitic attacks. Worries that progressive anti-Israel protestors would cause a spectacle in Chicago have long troubled Democrats who are desperate to avoid a repeat of their disastrous 1968 convention.
To be clear, this is not to say Walz does not have impressive credentials of his own, nor to imply that Shapiro’s Jewish faith was decisive.
As a former Command Sergeant Major and a Governor, Walz has both national security and executive experience, a considerable boost to the ticket given Harris’ lack thereof. Further, in recent weeks, Walz has emerged as a charismatic, likable figure who Democrats hope will help the ticket hold the “Blue Wall.”
However, Walz is not entirely risk free. His service in the National Guard has been criticized due to the fact that he retired before his unit deployed to Iraq, with some veterans groups slamming him as “abandoning” the men serving under him.
Additionally, as a progressive himself, his addition exposes the ticket to attacks from Republicans that they are too far to the political left, particularly on hot-button social issues.
Republicans have seized on this already, labeling Walz a “socialist” and criticizing him for his handling of the post-George Floyd riots in Minneapolis in 2020. Given concerns over public safety and rising crime, these attacks will almost certainly continue.
Ultimately, in what figures to be an extremely close presidential race, what proves decisive for either party remains to be seen. And yet, for two politicians who have very little in common aside from being their party’s vice presidential candidates, J.D. Vance and Tim Walz do share one thing: neither are likely to make a significant difference in the 2024 presidential election.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
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