Russo: Wild's short-term vision is clear with Yakov Trenin signing, but does it serve the long-term plan? (2024)

ST. PAUL, Minn. — In Bill Guerin’s mind, the equation for getting the Minnesota Wild back to the playoffs goes something like this:

1. Rediscover a lost hard-nosed identity.

2. Improve one of the league’s worst penalty kills.

3. Get internal improvements from Marcus Johansson, Freddy Gaudreau and Ryan Hartman.

4. Stay healthy.

5. Get off to a better start than last season, when losing 14 of the first 19 games cost Dean Evason (despite, as Guerin volunteered Monday without solicitation, that being largely because stars like Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy were underperforming).

Remedying those five ingredients is “where we feel we can get to,” the Wild’s president of hockey operations and general manager said Monday. “That’s the expectation.”

Here’s the concern, though: Often, teams that rely on so many repairs coming from within leave the following season just as disappointed and perplexed that things didn’t magically fix themselves.

Unfortunately for the Wild, by their own making, they are hamstrung by limited cap space and roster flexibility. So they have no choice but to pray their players come to training camp raring to go so they can get off next season with a bang and somehow get through 82 games unscathed by the injury bug.

On Monday, during what will likely be their only day dipping into the free-agent market, the Wild didn’t go on a lavish, exhilarating spending spree like, say, the division rival Nashville Predators did. That was impossible with less than $6 million of cap space and a lack of desire to give lengthy terms to second-line winger candidates.

Instead, the Wild chose to continue a recent trend of allocating their available funds to a middle-six forward Guerin hopes will help the Wild be much, much harder to play against.

Two days after adding inexpensive fourth-liner Jakub Lauko in a trade with the Boston Bruins, the Wild paid abrasive, strong-forechecking, versatile, solid penalty-killing forward Yakov Trenin $14 million on a four-year contract ($3.5 million average).

Why?

Let Trenin himself tell you what it was like facing the Wild before and after they lost Marcus Foligno (sports hernia), Pat Maroon (back surgery and eventual trade) and Brandon Duhaime (trade).

“When I played against them early in the season — when Marcus was healthy (and) Duhaime and Maroon (were there) — it was like a way different game compared to the last games in the season,” said Trenin, 27, who has 705 hits in 299 career games. “It particularly got a little bit softer, and that’s why I can help with that.”

That’s one heck of an indictment from an opposing player. But it’s the truth.

With the Preds and the Colorado Avalanche in 2023-24, Trenin played against Minnesota five times, so he’d know. And just like Guerin, he probably remembers the 6-1 drubbing Nashville handed the Wild four games before the trade deadline. In what Minnesota dubbed its “biggest game of the year,” the Wild were Charmin soft.

Trenin scored that night, which is another thing Guerin and coach John Hynes, who had Trenin for four years in Nashville, like about him.

Trenin’s expected to play a third-line role in Minnesota, and the Wild believe he can chip in offensively there (he averaged 0.7 goals per 60 minutes the past three years in a fourth-line role). But even more so, they hope Trenin can impact one of the league’s most porous penalty kills. It’s an area that must improve, something the Wild expect will happen if Foligno and Jared Spurgeon get back to good health, new assistant coach Jack Capuano helps, they get better goaltending and Boldy can take on a new role.

“When you think particularly at our team, our nine to 12 forwards, we felt we had to have more of an identity: more speed, bigger, stronger, faster, guys that can play with an edge, guys that can tilt the ice, guys that bring energy to your team with the way that they play,” Hynes said. “That’s certainly something that he brings.”

Now, there’s a lot of offseason left. The fact Guerin didn’t address the need for a second-line winger Monday doesn’t mean he won’t eventually.

But the Wild have only $2.531 million in cap space left if Liam Ohgren and Marat Khusnutdinov make the team. Shave off $1 million or more for the eventual re-signing of defenseman Declan Chisholm, and the Wild can’t afford to sign someone else of consequence in free agency.

That’s not to say they won’t continue to pursue the Columbus Blue Jackets’ Patrik Laine if the other side is willing to eat half of his $8.7 million AAV on the remaining two years of his contract, though as The Athletic reported Saturday, that would likely be a trade later this summer as Laine is still in the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program. And if they have interest in Laine, they could also be poking around on other players who fit that mold.

But even at a discounted $4.35 million cap hit for Laine, the Wild could only make that work if they free up significant cap space in the deal or a separate one.

The most obvious way would be to trade goaltender Filip Gustavsson and his $3.75 million cap hit. Guerin seemed to indicate over the weekend that was still in the cards, saying there was still plenty of time this offseason when asked if it should be assumed Jesper Wallstedt will start next season in AHL Iowa. Of course, now that day one of free agency is gone and so many goalies have changed addresses, it’s hard to see a clear path toward trading Gustavsson.

On Monday, Guerin said of Gustavsson: “I’m great having him back with us. It’s not something where I’m running anybody out of town. … He’s a good goalie. He had one great year here with us. Last year was not as good as his first year, but we’re looking for him to regain the form of the previous year.”

Other trade options? Well, Johansson and Gaudreau are plummeting down the depth chart. Johansson has one year left at $2 million but has a full no-trade clause. Gaudreau has four years left at $2.1 million annually with a 15-team no-trade clause.

From there, options are limited because the Wild either wouldn’t want to trade players or they are chained to them because of no-move clauses (Foligno, Hartman and Mats Zuccarello).

“We still have to look down the road,” Guerin said. “When you see some of the names being signed and going certain places, we still didn’t have the amount of cap space it took to add certain types of players. But when you look past the coming year, like I have to, we felt that the identity of the team, getting back to playing a harder style, giving our young players another year to not just develop but start making an impact on the big team is something that we felt was just as important.

“Our time will come when we can kind of dip into the high offensive-type guys, but if the Johanssons, if the Gaudreaus, guys like that, and Hartzy, even though Hartzy had 20 goals, if they can have better offensive years, which they’re capable of, then that will definitely help.”

Of course, the Trenin signing on its surface handcuffs Guerin even further, giving him another locked-in forward heading into next offseason when the Wild are finally mostly free of the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyout pain.

The $14.7 million decreases to $1.667 million through 2029.

For a team that could have been flush with money to spend if it didn’t lock itself into so many players (Jake Middleton also will sign a four-year, $17.4 million extension Tuesday, meaning five more years), the Wild suddenly have $72 million or $73 million (assuming Brock Faber receives an $8 million or $9 million extension this summer) committed to 15 players for 2025-26.

The salary cap is estimated to be $92 million. Considering Kaprizov, too, will be due an extension, it’s hard to see how the Wild will shoot off those July 1, 2025, fireworks that fans have been expecting since they bought into being patient during four years of cap hell.

Asked if he still sees himself having flexibility next summer, Guerin said: “I do, I do. I think we’ll be fine.

“We don’t just look at this year. We look long term — what’s it going to look like this year, the year after, the year after that, the following. This is all a plan to just continue to improve our team and become Cup contenders at some point in time. There’s no reason why we can’t start today.

“For me, Yak, he’s 27 years old, we gave him four years, so we’re getting what we feel are going to be his best years. And he’s going to be a big part of us really turning the corner.”

For his part, Trenin said he’s been talking to Kaprizov, his former world juniors teammate, about the Wild and is sold. Kaprizov even gave Trenin suggestions about where to live.

As expected, the Wild also signed several players to two-way contracts to support AHL Iowa better and give the NHL club better call-up options if it’s handicapped like last season with long-term injuries.

Up front, the Wild signed Devin Shore, 29, the former University of Maine standout, to a one-year, $775,000 contract that will pay him $400,000 in Iowa with a $450,000 guarantee in 2023-24. He has played 443 NHL games for the Dallas Stars, Anaheim Ducks, Blue Jackets, Edmonton Oilers and Seattle Kraken, scoring 51 goals and 139 points.

They added former University of Minnesota center Travis Boyd, 30, to a one-year, $775,000 contract that will pay him $550,000 in Iowa. He has scored 47 goals and 118 points in 296 games for the Washington Capitals, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks and Arizona Coyotes. He spent the past three seasons with the Coyotes and hasn’t played in the minors since four games with Hershey in 2019-20.

They added former Chicago Blackhawk Reese Johnson, a hard-nosed forward with 141 NHL games under his belt, for $775,000 ($500,000 in the minors); center Brendan Gaunce, the former Cleveland Monsters captain with 177 games of NHL experience, to a two-year deal worth $775,000 per year, with a $550,000 minor-league salary; and Ben Jones, 25, who played two games for the Vegas Golden Knights, to a two-year deal worth $775,000 per, with a minor-league salary of $275,000.

On the blue line, they signed Joseph Cecconi, 27, the former Michigan Wolverine, who has 54 points and 186 penalty minutes in 275 AHL games, to a one-year, $775,000 contract that’ll pay him $325,000 in the minors; and Cameron Crotty, 25, who made his NHL debut for Arizona in March, to a one-year, $775,000 contract that’ll pay him $500,000 in the minors. They also added goalie Troy Grosenick, the AHL Goalie of the Year in 2017, at one-year, $775,000 or $250,000 in the minors.

Wild 2024-25 depth chart

Forwards

Vying for spots: Khusnutdinov, Ohgren, Heidt ($950,000)*, Shore ($775,000), Boyd ($775,000), Johnson ($775,000), Jones ($775,000), Gaunce ($775,000), Clark (RFA), Walker (RFA), Raska (RFA), Haight ($897,500), Toporowski ($870,000), Milne ($861,667), Novak ($846,667).

* Heidt can only return to the WHL or play for the Wild.

Defensem*n

Vying for spots: Hunt ($828,233), Spacek ($862,500), Cecconi ($775,000), Crotty ($775,000), Lambos ($863,333), Masters ($865,000), O’Rourke ($855,833), Peart ($925,000)

Pending restricted free agent: Chisholm

Goaltending

Vying for spots: Wallstedt*

In the system: Hlavaj ($875,000), Grosenick ($775,000)

* Even though Wallstedt is included in the depth chart, his cap charge isn’t included in our tabulation because he’ll start in Iowa if Gustavsson isn’t traded.

Cap space

Salary cap hit: $85,468,588 (including $14,743,488 in dead money, $637,500 in Rossi bonus overages and assumes Ohgren and Khusnutdinov make the team)

Projected salary cap: $88 million

Salary cap space before re-signing Chisholm, signing unrestricted free agents and possible internal additions: $2,531,412*

(Photo: Michael Martin / NHLI via Getty Images)