Kevin Cox' Selections And Analysis (2024)

Not too great on the top end, on Sunday, but we got home a $464 Triple Box, and three Exacta Boxes of $87, $75 & $12.

We are guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least the 4th race on August 1st.

See Also

Jon Voight on Being Hollywood’s Most Outspoken Trump Supporter and Fighting Angelina Jolie Over Israel-Palestine: ‘She’s Been Influenced by Antisemitic People’11 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct SelectionsKevin Cox: Positions, Relations and Network

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #7 Pay the Juice

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #5 SHAKIN THE BELLE ( who should be no worse than 3rd for all you show grinders out there ) has been a different animal over her last triad, posting successive career best numbers. Not much more to say here, as she needn't do much to get the job done. #8 CONNIVING is halved in price off the layoff, and posted an adjusted 66.1 in his only start off the bench, which happened to come from an outside placement. #1 TWO TONS OF FUN has the white flag run up on him today, as this $100,000 Keeneland purchase can be all yours for a double saw buck this afternoon. Obvious factor is able to get back to the dirt efforts. NOTE: AS OF 7:08 P.M. SUNDAY, DUE TO AN ERROR, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-5-8.

#10 OUT ON BAIL has hit the board in both starts to date, and exits a race where the first two who finished directly in front of him, finished first and third in their next outings, increasing in the Beyer department by an average of seven points. As for today's surface transition, we see that the paternal granddam was 6 of 13 on the stuff, having banked more than 350 large, which includes a Grade Two victory. Obviously we love the draw. #9 ARMY PROUD is showing a nice turf breeze at Oklahoma for today's debut, and as a January foal, has a maturity edge on all those who have yet to race. #4 STRAND ROAD is as good as any for the show dough. OFF TURF: 4-2-7-3-2B(AE) BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 PAY THE JUICE fills the bill, as Shug is 0-12 with all pertinent categories.

#5 STRONG PLAY came from the back of the back after breaking a bit tardy to get up in time in procuring the sheepskin at first asking, and ended up in a different barn afterwards. Flavor Flav now takes over, and a repeat is well within reach. #6 MEL'S BABY SISTER has partaken in the exacta in four of her five recent events, and we see no reason another goodie isn't attainable in today's third start off the bench. #7 MALU was a visually impressive victress versus conditional platers last week, and is wheeled right back for the new outfit.

#5 BARRON'S BOUNCE hasn't been seen since finishing in the back half of the pack at 8/5 on the 17th of May, and drops a couple of pegs for the comebacker, but does in fact, secure the meet's leading rider. Take a looksee during the warmups. #2 TWO JAY'S WAY had an awkward onset to the bow, and is another one sliding down for today's surface transition. Could spice things up beneath. #1 BIG EGO ( Dig it. ) enters today off a lifetime best numero, and after being kept in jail since the purchase, is dropped 25% in class now. Can't fault those taking a favorable view.

#5 BRAMITO has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but new trainer makes this one available for purchase for the first time, while removing his procreating abilities. While the turf pedigree is a bit suspect, we see that the paternal grandsire was three for three on the stuff, and barn does quite well when being handed a runner. Recognize the insane DRF Formulator statistic, which has this jockey/trainer combination on a sizzling 7 fer 11 run with locally based runners at 18 to 1 or less. The winners came back $37, $15, $12, $20, $7, $4, and $5. Very intriguing prospect here. #7 FUNNY UNCLE gave a solid account of himself when finishing a lively runner up versus a tougher allotment down in Louisville last time out, and although he didn't show much in the sole turf engagement, is just as decently bred for it as the brown stuff. #9 UNION EXPRESS has hit the board in his last quartet, and those efforts were on both the turf and synthetic. Logical contender. OFF TURF: 1-3-7-11-6

#2 I'M JUST KIDDING hasn't been seen since early January, but lost by only a length in his only comebacker on the turf, and Irad guided her to a solid 3rd place finish in their lone pairing. #5 SPINNING COLORS hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but lost by less than two lengths at 53 to 1 in her only return deal. It's nice to see Johnny get back on, as he was astride for the maiden breaking performance. #3 SPOOKY LADY has oodles of early zip, and may land a share. OFF TURF: 7-2-5-4-1

#4 CLEARLY UNHINGED ( I think we ALL know someone like that ) shoots for the hat trick today, and as she is supported by a solid trainer statistic, we'd say it's quite feasible. Over the last 60 months, The As-Man is 5:4-0-1 with Saratoga based female sand sprinters who got the job done 51 to 65 days in the past, and are NOT receiving Lasix. The ROI for that study is $4.16, and she just may have a shot of out of upsetting the favorite here. #5 STERLING SILVER is a win machine who recently went over the $750,000 mark, and has done okay at today's distance of ground. Could do with pace duel up front. Oh yeah, Mott has one with half of his six 'toga based dirt dashers who hit the board 12 to 50 days in the past at 11-1 or less, and are not receiving the wonder drug; the payoffs were a fat $22, $20, and $4. #6 SPIRIT WIND is 5 of 6 at today's distance, and what the hell is wrong with that?

#11 PAROS overcame some obstacles to get up in time when winning this race down at Aqueduct on the 5th of July, and we see no reason she can't get the job done once again beneath this helmsman, who is a groovy three of four in the irons. #8 KALIK went coast to coast like butter and toast when winning a Grade 2 last year the only time she was in a third off the layoff jammie, but has hit the skids since then, and is now up for grabs for the first time. Mixed signals, but you can't leave out of your rolling bets. #4 STREET READY has a decent amount of back class, and has done okay in this zip code. OFF TURF: 1-5-7-4-2

#6 TONGUE TWISTER didn't do much to get the heart thumpiing in the comeback try, but was a bit wide that day, and may have needed the race in her first two turn attempt. Slight chance to make amends here in a humdrum nightcap. #2 QUITE CONTINENTAL has been beset by back to back layoff lines to begin her working life, but gets an upgrade in the barn area today, and rates a puncher's chance if able to get back to the debut performance down in Oldsmar. #10 SAVING MEMORIES makes her third 'true' start off the layoff today, and could grab a piece. OFF TURF: 9-6-3-5-2

Saratoga Summer ( Current ): 17-94 ( $312.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-7 ( 28.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 31-94 ( 32.2% )( As of Wednesday morning )

Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )

Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win %139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )

Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #9 Pallotta Sisters

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#3 DANCING DAKOTAH, like so many others in here, begins her working life this afternoon, and does such with some nice morning moves in tow. January foal has a maturity edge over the entire allotment, and although the turf pedigree is lousy, sometimes a sprinters' speed can carry a horse a long way on the lawn, despite poor bloodlines. For what it's worth, all six members of the family tree got their first win within their initial three starts, and we'll make this one a slight edge and a wide opener. #2 SECOND CHANCE ( And no, not everyone deserves 'em. ) doesn't have the best of draws for today's debut, but the bloodlines are honest enough, and would be no surprise. #8 CATALINA FINA has outran a fair amount of runners in the mornings, and could spice things up. OFF TURF: 4-2-14(MTO)-5-7

#1 ANOTHERDAYGONEBY is a fairly consistent sort who is but a nose shy of having won three of his last four outings when entered for $11,000 or less. Gal is 3:1-1-1 when first to load on the sand, and jockey/trainer combo fare substantially better together than apart. #6 CONDIMENT GIRL has been kept in jail since being claimed for a quarter back at the end of June, and is now entered for a whole lot less than the purchase price from that day. Two for three mark at the distance helps matters, but it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. #2 R FUNNY BIZNESS has a solid overall declining mark, and could do with a bit of pace to cut into.

#8 HIGH STICK has cashed a couple of decent checks down at Monmouth Park in her last duet, and we like the confidence shown by Shug in shipping this lightly raised five year old northward to what is most likely a tougher placement. Slimmest of margins in a race that's difficult to hug. #5 JUST DENY burst through the maiden ranks in decent fashion at the Big A last month, and did such at this rarely used distance. #7 IDEA GENERATION (IRE) closed out the exacta in her only true start off of a break in the action, and owns a modicum of back class. OFF TURF: 1-3-8-6-5

#7 ELLE ESTE FORTE hasn't been seen since a well clear placing in a similar spot down in Queens more than two and a half months ago, but this nibbler's nibbler has been a part of the superfecta in four of five tries off a break in the action, and picks up a jock who had a bunch of winners the other day right here. Tough to take it the price, but as we're not overly digging anything else here.... #10 NEXT ON STAGE is as consistent as they get, and completed the Exacta the only time she was in a third off the bench deal. Not sure how she will handle the sod, but as the pedigree is honest enough for such, and we see that she hit the board in her only start on the synthetic, we can do a lot worse at 8-1. #1 BENGALA JOY may perk up with the blinker removal in today's third start off the pine. OFF TURF: 2-5-10-11(MTO)-1 BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 PALLOTTA SISTERS is trained by Graham Motion, who's oh-for-24 with turf routers off L/O's of 64-239 days @ 12-1 or undah.

#1 WHISKEY N SODA ( Seems like a fine waste of soda, doesn't it? ) is a $360,000 auction purchase who could be all yours for a mere bag of shells this afternoon, and after having lost his procreating abilities, is sent up the turnpike to try and pick up a solid pot before he leaves the barn. From a Formulator aspect, T.P. wipes the competition clean with male dirt routers going long off absences of 51 to 57 days at 2-1 or less ( getting Lasix ), as he's a whopping 8 of 10 in that regards, with more than a $3.20 ROI. #8 ALL THE RAGE outran his odds quite nicely when showing in this race down in Queens last month, but we don't think you'll be getting 12-1 on this one come post time. #2 WATCH HILL by no means disgraced himself when facing winners for the first time, and after replicating the speed figure from the maiden breaker, deserves your respect once again

#7 IN THE CHASE takes his first afternoon trek to the front side today, and does such with a nicely tucked away 2nd best of 87 workout about 5 weeks ago down at the Shore. 379 Tomlinson is honest enough, and shedrow is three of eight with male dirsters not receiving the miracle drug at 4-1 or less, and there is a subcategory of one for one right here. #1 DOMINICAN THUNDER bested only one at first asking, but that was a stakes race where he was woefully overmatched, and has blinkers added for today's secondary engagement which will hopefully aid this one in being a bit more forwardly placed. #10 BOOKITWITHHADDAD has been conducting his morning affairs quite nicely, and draws ideally while getting our man Flavor Flav.

#1 KINGDOM has oodles of early zip, went coast to coast like butter and toast the last two times he was in a second off the layoff spot, and Irad has done quite well for this outfit over the last couple of years. Hard not to like. #6 PRINTRACK is a check earning son of a gun, who has been a fantastic claim by Rudy Rod, as he's yet to miss an exacta in nine starts since the purchase last August. Three of five mark at today's distance of ground only adds to the allure. #3 ROCKET AND ROLL hasn't shown squat since being purchased for 20K back in April, but got the job done when going two turns to one last year for a different trainer. We'll include at a price, despite the fact that Chatterpaul is on a miserable 0-21 streak of late ( April, as a matter of fact ).

#2 CRUISE TO CATALINA was a visually impressive victress when drawing away to a maiden breaking win at first asking, and although she may have outperformed her pedigree a bit that day, we see that this trainer is three or four w/ his dirt stock who secured their initial tally 28 to 50 days in the rear, at 6-1 or less. Barn is three or four with that sort, with the winners coming back $3, $4, and $8. #8 DOLOMITE hasn't been seen since early December, but was doing nice work back then, and that includes a strong placing behind My Mane squeeze in the local debut. Note that Lasix is now a part of the makeup. #3 EASY PLAY has hit the board in his last troika, and we have no qualms in tossing in a 10 to 1.

#3 FUTURE IS NOW has done some fine work throughout her 11 race career, as she's gone five of eight at today's trip, with one of those tallies coming at today's distance. Bobblehead was aboard for that one, and we like this one's ability to send or rate just a bit. #10 ROSES FOR DEBRA is another one with a proclivity for getting her photo taken, and did just that the only time she was in a third of the layoff engagement. A lotta good stuff here, especially with the fact that she breaks from the outside for the first time. #4 KAUFYMAKER owns a win and a placing in just as many second of the bench jamborees, and digs the trip and course. OFF TURF: 11(AE)-10-1-6-9

#12 DAKOTA COUNTRY has shown marked improvement since switching over to the green stuff two starts back, and now takes the biggest drop in the game while getting an upgrade to the meet's leading rider. Shot caller is 4-6 with those going long on the lawn at this level, who hit the board 16 to 67 days in the past that are 5-1 or less. The return on investment for that sampling is $3.07, but will obviously have to overcome the draw. #10 ENGLISH CASTLE has yet to hit the board, but is another one taking the plunge, and C-Squared is 8 of 17 with sod routers taking this kind of drop off absences of 15 to 67 days, that are 7 to 1 or less. He's 8 of 17 with that sort, and has a positive R.O.I. in that regards. #2 MY LIFE STORY completes our triad of choices dropping down, and has eye cups added, while being reunited with Looie, who piloted him to two runnerup finishes in their lone starts in tandem. OFF TURF: 2-4-6-8-9

Saratoga Summer ( Current ): 17-94 ( $312.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-7 ( 28.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 31-94 ( 32.2% )( As of Wednesday morning )

Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )

Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win %139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )

Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

We are not really feeling the heat from this heat, but nonetheless, we'll side with the #3 AFTERNOON HEAT. Eight year old enters today off a solid troika of races, as he was decently spotted down in the Mid Atlantic circuit. Blinkers are now added for the first time in his 44 Race career, and we like the 3 lb reduction in weight, as well as the three post position improvement. #6 VALENZAN DAY shoots for the hat trick today, and given the visually impressive manner in which he won his last pair, we'd say it's most definitely well within reach for this win machine, who owns the sort of declining record we like to see ( 17:7-3-1 ). Race clearly goes through him. #8 BOURBON CALLING drops for the second straight time this afternoon, and after the voided claim last out, it would behoove you to take a gander during the warmups. Caveat emptor.

#1 GENEROUS LUVA played the fade in a similar spot down in Queens two months ago, but gets an around the world treatment for today's return, as she has blinkers and the wonder drug administered for the first time, while also taking the biggest drop in the game. Irad sees fit to take the call once again, and that's reason enough to give this one a tepid nod. #7 INFLAMMABELLE has some nice early zip, and although she's not as well bred for the green as the brown, perhaps the speed can carry her through. #9 SUPERSTARSUSAN cuts back for today's third off the shelf engagement, and can land a share. OFF TURF: 4-14(MTO)-2-12(AE)-7

Abbreviated, but highly competitive rendition of the Amsterdam this year, and we will put the #4 JEFFERSON STREET on top. Colt has yet to miss the money in his five race career, and that includes a going away win over this oval during Belmont week. From a DRF Formulator point of view, Mott is a saucy four for seven with dirt dashes not getting the miracle drug off sabbaticals of 48 to 50 days. The payouts for that study, with $22, $3, $4, and $9. We like this one's versatility and being able to come from off the pace, or rate just off a leader. #5 VALENTINE CANDY has a nice amount of back class, owns an all important win over the track, and was photogenic the only time when last to load. Oh yeah, toss in a win with his lone pairing beneath Joel as well. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the speed figures of #1 WORLD RECORD, as this fella has done nothing but improve with each passing start, but despite that, he has blinks added for the first time today, and we like when a trainer is confident enough to make a move like that off a decent performance.

#7 CHI TOWN LADY has always been a bit of a fragile sort, but got the job done and her only start in the zip code, and owns a win and a game showing in her lone pair of outings when last to load. From a trainer stat point of view, Ward is 9:7-1-1 with his first time routers on the dirt off absences of 20 to 50 days. The return on investment for that study is $5.75+, and there's a subcategory of three for three right here. #6 TOUGH STREET has hit the board in her last quartet, and has also been a part of the triple in all 10 starts at today's distance of ground. Logical unders candidate. #1 OCCULT is a classy sort, who closed out the tri in her only third off the layoff jammie.

#10 OUTTAWATERBURY hasn't done much to get the heart thumping in his last quartet, but gelding plunges today, and being this is just his second try in going to turns, we are willing to give him one more chance to get things going. At least it's good to see Johnny stick around, no? Slimmest of edges. #2 DYNA POINT showed precipitous improvement from his first turf engagement to the followup down in Maryland, and given the decent enough pedigree, we wouldn't be shocked to see another move forward today. #6 TONY O has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but has a decent collection of speed figures, and is as good as any for the show bread. OFF TURF: 1-2-8-9-10

#9 MISS WELCH gets her working papers this afternoon, and this gray gal tipped her hand a little bit with a nice gate move last week. $40,000 bred animal went for nearly five times that much at auction back in May, and aside from the fat Tomlinson of 429, we're digging the outside draw as well. From a trainer stat point of view, 'Miah is five of seven with those fitting all of this exact criteria at 18 to 1 or less, and there is a subcat of one for one with today's helmsman. The winners returned $15, $10, $3, $4 x 2, and given the hot start this Barn has had this far, we can do a lot worse. #5 HORSEPLAY showed diddly poo on the blades at first asking, and is now switched over to what we feel will be her best surface down the road. Chance to perk up at double digit odds, especially as Hills is two of three with second time starters making this surface transition at 67 to 1 or under. #6 OFF SCRIPT has a best of 147 gate breeze on display for today's lid lifter, and that's something that always merits inclusion for us.

#3 HARRY HOOD has been up to track in his last pair, but we like to go three races back to find something positive, and this boy lost by just a schnoz at 15 to 1 in the Grade 2 event down in Hallandale Beach back on 8th of March. Chance if able to get back to that performance, but you better demand all of the 6-1 morning line offering, if not a bit more. #5 BETTER BET had a forgettable performance last time out, but clipped heels that day, and if you're willing to forgive and forget, then what you have is a triad of solid starts just prior to that. Must include. #6 BE LIKE CLINT has completed the triple in his last three outings, and who are we to rock that boat ? OFF TURF: 1-11(AE)-5-7-8

#2 RUN CURTIS RUN has been camera shy for nearly two years now, but has done okay on the Mellon, and happens to be backed by a solid trainer statistic. Over the last 60 months, barn is on a six for eight run with optional turf dashes right here, off sabbaticals of less than 40 days. The victors came back a healthy $30, $13, $8, $7 X2, and $4. Once again, we'd like to see better than 7-2, especially with the frigid start that Saez has had. #5 SILARDI was a dead game winner when facing slightly softer in New Jersey and the 19:7-3-4 mark at today's distance positively stands out against the 11:0-0-1 record otherwise. Watch out, #6 SURVEILLANCE is a check earning fool who is entered for 20% less than the price claimed two back, so you have to assume all systems will be go for this uncoupled barnmate with our top selection. OFF TURF: 10-7-3-1-2

#7 CASTLE CHAOS by no means disgraced himself when finishing 4th at 29-1 in the Met Mile, and seems decently spotted for today's second off the shelf deal. Gelding has done okay at today's dist., and shedrow has scored with all five of the optional sand sprinters off L/O's of 46-51 days, with the winners paying a robust $48, $23, $7, $4, and $5 x 2. Will likely be over bet a bit, but deserves your respect nonetheless. #3 RUNNINDONOfa*gUN has done okay at today's trip, and is eligible to do better than the last in today's third off the layoff deal. #4 FACTUALLY CORRECT has been alternating losses and wins for his last nine starts, so today should be a win right? If only the game was that simple. That said, we dig the mark this one has when going seven panels, and recognize that Flavor Flav got the job done in their lone pairing.

#5 MISSION HILL has done quite well since returning off a long sabbatical, and while a sensible on top choice, is by no means a cinch, especially with his money burning ways. Meekest of selections in today's finale. #6 WIND DANCER has blinkers added after an even effort last time out, and could show a tad of improvement. #4 FILM ACADEMY posted a lifetime best figure the only time he was in the second off the bench spot, and should be in the thick of things. OFF TURF: 5-3-4-7-2

Saratoga Summer ( Current ): 17-94 ( $312.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-7 ( 28.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 31-94 ( 32.2% )( As of Wednesday morning )

Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win %139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )

Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout

Today's Beatable Favorite(s):

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#3 ATOMIC AGE gets his working papers this afternoon, and although he is a late foal, we are heartened by a couple of the morning moves on display. Turf pedigree is a bit light, but mommy's daddy finished second in his only sod start, and we'll make this one a meek selection in the day's opener. #7 WEST BEACH gave a nice account of himself when completing the exacta at 14-1 first time out, and despite possibly having outran his pedigree that day, the barn being off to a hot start helps matters a bit. Recognize the fact that T-Gaff has been riding lights out. #1 FLYING MOWHAWK is extremely well bred for this sort of deal, and could be any kind. OFF TURF: 4-2-12(AE)-3-1A

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #7 SORORITY PRANK is slowly giving the impression of becoming that type of maiden, but if you were to prorate the recent turf number to that of his best on the sand, then what you have is a figure that pretty much stands out here. Should be no worse than third for all you who like to grind out a show profit. #2 EXECUTIVE MOVE hasn't been seen since the end of 2023, but gets the wonder drug for today's comebacker, and has since lost his procreating abilities. Note that two of four returnees who finished directly in front of him in the bow have come back to win, and that's from three separate races. #3 IRON MAN IRA has hit the superfecta in all three starts since switching outfits, and Irad sees fit to stick around despite the recent flop at odds on.

#6 PERFECT FLIGHT positively plummets after besting only the chase ambulance in his first start off the claim by Maker, and despite being checked that day, the connections don't feel it was that much of a reason for the grisly defeat. Even with a win and another claim, the owner stands to lose some bread here, so you'll have to assume all systems will be go. From a DRF Formulator aspect, this outfit has won with half of their six dirt dashers dropping 50% in the second off the claim deals ( 26 to 50 days ) and there is a subcategory of two for two with those at this level. #1A AMUNDSON sure is a fun old war horse, ain't he ? Eight year old goes for the grand salami today, and it's most definitely quite feasible given his fondness for this trip and strip. #9 CHARLIE FIVE O popped and stopped in the most recent, but rates a shot if able to get back to the prior two outings just before that.

Another race where our listed troika should suffice. #5 SPEAK EASY got the job done in a big way when scoring from a disadvantageous post at a difficult debut distance down in Hallandale Beach at the end of January, and although he hasn't been seen since, the work tab has been active enough to not worry your pretty little heads about it. Triple digit Beyers are difficult to come by for those making their overtures these days, and this one will most definitely take some pounding at the windows. #2 NOTAH went coast to coast like butter and toast versus what we would consider a tougher allotment during Belmont week, and check earning fool deserves your respect not only for that effort, but for the fact that he has hit the board in two prior starts when first to load, as well. Another one who should be no worse than third. #4 MARIACHI posted a lifetime best Figaro the only time he was in a second off the bench deal, and it happened to come at this distance and on this course. Not hopeless should the top choice falter.

#10 GAME WARDEN was in the rear with the gear when making his first start off the claim two months ago, but we like that there is no scary drop today, especially as this one is backed by a nice trainer statistic. Over the last 5 years, Casse is four of eight w/ second off the snag sand starters who missed the baccala 10 to 50 days back, that are 30-1 or less. The winners in that study returned $11, $10, and $8 x 2, and there is a subcat of one for one with today's pilot. #8 SPECIAL DISPATCH gets a jock upgrade after the troubled showing down in Louisville last out, and must be left in the mix given his last three speed figures on the sand and stuff. #5 UNTABLE PRINCE is hiked up the ladder after besting conditional platers a baker's dozen days ago, and we like the grit shown the way this grey gelding overcame some trouble at the onset that day. Could spice things up despite the recent tally.

Pretty competitive rendition of the A.G. Vanderbilt this year, and we'll give the nod to #6 SKELLY. This fella is but one stumbling start away from having been a part of the Exacta in all 16 starts to date, and you'd have to think part of the reason for that is how delicately handled he's been throughout his career, as this is his first start at the Grade Two level or above. That being said, the as-man is four of six with locally based grated dirt dashers ridden by Santana, off breaks of 51 to 61 days ( no juice ). There is a positive ROI with that survey, and gelding went all the way the only time he was last to load. #3 MY BUDDY B doesn't need to take his track with him, as this is his 9th different venue from 18 starts to date, and he's already won eight times ! Jock/Trainer combination are an astounding 9 of 16 together, and the more we look at this fella, the more intrigued we are. #1 NAKATOMI has a nice amount of back Class, and has done okay in his comeback attempts.

#1 INVICTUS begins his working life today, and quarter of a million dollar bred animal went for nearly five times that amount at Keeneland last September, so obviously he's well meant. January foal has a maturity edge over all of those who have yet to race, and bloodlines are top notch. #10 TIZTASTIC draws well for today's curtain raising, and is a half to an open stakes winner/Grated Stakes placed gal who banked more than 213 large. #3 AMERICAN PROMISE is another pricey auction purchase, but as born doesn't do well with firsters, we'll leave this one beneath.

We're not really feeling the love here, so tread lightly. #5 AUNT NONNA outran her parimutual offering quite nicely when completing the superfecta at 44 to 1 first time out, and did it after encountering some trouble at the onset. The Tomlinson for the gramma tells us that result was likely not an aberration, and we feel this one may still be overlooked a bit. #4 ARRASOU hasn't been seen in 11 flips of the calendar, but did some good work last year, and although it doesn't matter as much now as a few months ago, but keep in mind this is the only 4YO in the field. #6 SATIN BLUE goes over firm ground for just the second time, and given the decent form since returning off the respite, we'll toss into the hopper. OFF TURF: 12(AE)-1-11(AE)-2-3

#8 WEST HOLLYWOOD has done some nice work since arriving in the States this year, procuring the sheepskin in his first start, before finishing a gamely runner up when facing winners for the first time --never an easy spot. Prat hops on this afternoon, and y'all know how we feel about him, and it looks like they will have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. #2 MAIN BEACH has improved with each passing start, culminating with a maiden braking performance down in Jersey two months ago. Who knows where the ceiling is with this one now that he's gotten the ball rolling. #2 RISK TOLERANCE (IRE) ( uncoupled barnmate with our secondary selection ) ground ( Grinded ? ) out a score at first asking back in April, and is an obvious threat of fully cranked up for the return. OFF TURF: 4-7-12-1-10

It's Jim Dandy time, and we're seeing it as a two horse affair. Not that they will necessarily run one-two mind you, but that we feel the winner will be one of them! #1 SIERRA LEONE is a little bit of an enigma, but you simply cannot deny the possible long range talents with this one once he figures things out completely. Colt always leaves himself with too much to do, and drives his backers a bit crazy in the lane at times, but the adjusted numbers tell us that he should absolutely not be worse than second in this spot. As we feel our number two choice is a bit of a question mark, believe it or not this fella actually may be a decent place bet, as should Fierceness not fire once again, then maybe you get an inflated return on that bet. From a Formulator perspective, Brown is a perfect six of six with graded dirt routers who were in the money 48 to 55 days in the rear, and are not receiving Lasix while going off at less than five to two. The winners came back $5 x 3, $6 x 2, and $3, and with only five competitors signed on, he shouldn't have too many traffic issues. The aforementioned #6 FIERCENESS has been alternating wins and losses since starting things out here last year, so theoretically today should be a win right? If only the game were that simple! Like we mentioned, he has the all important win over the track, and is one of two in true starts off the bench. #2 SEIZE THE GREY was extremely disappointing in the Belmont, but note that he is 3:2-0-1 after finishing off the board, and deserves a chance to make some amends.

We are not quite sure where that going away win by the #2 RABAJA came from last time out, but despite a bounce always being possible after something like that, we are going to hope that the light bulb stays on for at least one more race. Slight edge here. #7 TOPIC CHANGER by no means embarrassed himself when completing the superfecta at 9-1 down in ozone Park at the end of June, as he most definitely needed that race after a 13 month hibernation. Tyler takes over today, and that's fine by us. Big shot. #6 STARQUIST showed marked improvement the only time he went from brown to green, and that performance came beneath Romero. Could jazz things up underneath. OFF TURF: 2-3-15(AE)-5-12(AE)

#8 ALITTLEBITNAUGHTY showed just a little bit of talent in the return engagement on the 5th of July, but as she had been away for quite some time, we're willing to forgive and forget. Recognize that the lone other deal on firm ground yielded an adj. numero of 73.2, and despite Looie being frigid on the stand, he has posted some Gargan-tuan numbers for this outfit. #3 SUMMER WHIRL appreciated the stretch out in her secondary engagement, and barn is three or five w/female second time routers at this level, who hit the money less than two fortnights back at 10-1 or less that are receiving the "Big L" for the 1st time. The winners came back $6, $4, and $3, but as we feel the pedigree is still a bit unproven, will leave underneath. #4 AUTUMN has hit the board in her last three outings, and who are we to rock that boat? OFF TURF: 10-3-6-7-2

Saratoga Summer ( Current ): 17-94 ( $312.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-7 ( 28.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 31-94 ( 32.2% )( As of Wednesday morning )

Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )

Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win %139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )

Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout