The Los Angeles Dodgers have been baseball's best team over the past decade. They've made the postseason every season since 2013 and, more impressively, won 10 of the past 11 National League West titles.
The one year they didn't win the division? The bizarre 2021 season, where they won 106 games, finishing one shy of the bewildering 107-win San Francisco Giants.
The Dodgers have won more than 100 games in four consecutive full-length seasons, and five of the past six. Their .717 winning percentage in the lockdown-shortened 2020 projects to a 116-win full season pace. And even in 2018 when they won "just" 92 games, their expected record, based on run differential, was 101-61.
After a host of roster changes heading into 2023, the front office once again reorganized the lineup and starting rotation for 2024. Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton and Teoscar Hernandez all added pitching and lineup depth. Those players required monumental financial commitments, of course, and sure enough, entering Tuesday, the Dodgers have already all but locked up yet another NL West title.
At 33-17, Los Angeles has an eight-game lead over the second-place San Diego Padres. And their expected record is even better; given their run differential, they've actually been slightly unlucky.
It's easy to say that the Dodgers financial might is responsible, and to a large extent, that's true. But the continued success goes much deeper than that. Especially this season. And it's a model that other organizations have yet to match.
Mar 28, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts (50) celebrates with designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) after hitting a home run during the third inning of an opening day game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports
Dodgers Use Depth, Analytics To Create A Juggernaut
The Dodgers have relied on Ohtani and right fielder turned second baseman turned shortstop Mookie Betts to lead the team; Ohtani is tied for first in position player wins above replacement at 3.1, per Fangraphs, and Betts sits just behind at 3.0. But it's what comes after those two players that separates the lineup from most other teams.
Will Smith, a homegrown player, has become arguably baseball's best catcher, currently sitting in the top-15 in position player WAR himself. Max Muncy, an Oakland A's castoff, has been 23% better than league average as a hitter, and despite a career of poor defense, has somehow added value with the glove at third base.
To start the year, the Dodgers expected past-his-prime Jason Heyward and utility man Chris Taylor to provide depth in the lineup and platoon advantages against starters and relievers. Instead, Heyward got hurt in the first week of the season, and Taylor started the year in a disastrous slump, hitting just .098 through late-May.
Center fielder James Outman had an outstanding rookie season in 2023, providing four wins above replacement thanks to a .790 OPS and above average defense. But his production also evaporated, with an OPS of just .516 through 109 at bats.
Even with the star power at the top, most teams wouldn't be able to sustain this level of success with key role players hurt or drastically underperforming. But that's exactly where the Dodgers have separated themselves.
Chris Taylor and James Outman aren't hitting? Enter the Dodgers top-ranked farm system. Last month, LA called up Andy Pages, one of the organization's highly ranked prospects, who, despite a recent slump, has added nearly a win in value in just 31 games.
Miguel Rojas has picked up the slack from a slow start from second baseman Gavin Lux, turning in elite defense and an above average batting line as a supersub. That's what the Dodgers plan for; supplant the stars with overwhelming depth. And it's working.
Pitching And Defense
It's not just offense though; the Dodgers pitching staff has been extremely effective, thanks in part to some of Major League Baseball's best defensive statistics.
Through the team's analytics department, they've managed to turn out of position players like Betts, veterans in their mid-30's and younger rookies into an elite unit. All because of defensive positioning. Put your players in the right spots, and plays become easier.
And while the rest of the sport grapples with the scourge of ever increasing pitcher injuries, the Dodgers have managed to navigate around more than their fair share of issues. Walker Buehler took over a month to make his MLB debut in 2024? No problem, the Dodgers have homegrown prospect Landon Knack to pick up spot starts, adding a 2.61 ERA in four starts.
Dustin May and Clayton Kershaw are still months away? Gavin Stone has a 3.27 ERA in eight starts. Even Bobby Miller, who had an outstanding rookie season in 2023 and routinely hits 100mph, has made just three starts this year.
Tyler Glasnow has a history of injuries and Yamamoto's still adjusting to an increased workload? The Dodgers have former starters turned long relievers like Michael Grove and Ryan Yarbrough to take down bulk innings, ensuring that the front line starters get extra days of rest.
Evan Phillips goes down for a month, Joe Kelly gets hurt and Brusdar Graterol remains out for an extend period? Daniel Hudson and Blake Treinen can step in to take down high leverage innings with elite stuff and results. Sure enough, the Dodgers have allowed the second fewest amount of runs per game this year, even including a 15-run outburst by the Padres in South Korea. Take that performance out, and they've given up just 3.20 runs per game, which would be first.
This is what the plan for the Dodgers is and has been; overwhelm opposing teams with depth and plan for injuries. While other organizations like say, the San Diego Padres, have focused on star power, ignored depth and hoped for health; the Dodgers have worked to provide options in case of unexpected outcomes or injuries. The Padres are 25-25, and have a 3% chance of winning their division.
Yes, it requires money, but it also requires exceptional drafting and development, quality analytics to put players in a position to succeed, and a commitment to roster building that goes beyond just the top three or four stars.
Does any of this matter in the playoffs? Of course not. Condensing a 162-game marathon into a best-of-five or seven series is going to create inherent randomness that no amount of planning can account for or predict. All teams can do it put themselves in the best positions possible. And yet again, the Dodgers have done exactly that.
Oh and their expected record this season corresponds to a 110-win team. Again.
